Previous Week Update:
Followed A nicely and respected all bearish market structure.
Upcoming USD News:
- Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
- Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- Previous: 0.7%
- Forecast: 0.4%
- Unemployment Claims
- Previous: 249K
- Forecast: 241K
- Crude Oil Inventories
- Previous: 1.9M
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
Monthly: Monthly showed that we touched triangle resistance, depending on how the monthly closes there is still no idea if it is a rejection or not. However, it is looking like we will test the bottom of the ranging box we are in.
Weekly: We closed with a strong bearish candle, I see a liquidity wick to form before continuing to the lower support. However, we will need a strong close under the support on the daily before we continue lower.
Daily: Daily as I said last week is looking to create a Head and Shoulders formation. I see us creating a shower to retest broken support then continue lower. We need a lower high on the daily before continuing lower to create a new lower low.
H4: As you see we have been respecting our zones very beautifully. There is always a retest, so be patience and wait for price action to play out at the zones you are looking for the take the trade. I am looking for a retest of recent broken support to add sells to ride it to the H&S neckline.
Overall USDJPY Analysis
USD has been dramatically weakening, I don’t really see us breaking the H&S neckline though. I believe that the bounce or break will come with next month’s NFP and Fed Fund Rates. Right now, I will only look for short at broken support and look to take all my profits out at the H&S neckline.
Mostly looking for retested (A+B) but keeping myself not biased by thinking about possible paths to the upside.