Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update.PNG

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1.PNG

There was a mix of movement between B + C, but overall, we followed path C nicely. I took shorts but closed at the lowest red line. Why? Markets are still ranging, there is still no sense of direction just yet.


Upcoming USD + JPY News:

  • Tuesday
    • JPY – BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • Wednesday
    • CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.5%
      • Forecast: 0.1%
    • Core CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Core Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: 1.0%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: 1.6%
      • Forecast: 0.0%
    • Crude Oil Invetories
      • Previous: 2.2M
    • Thursday
      • Unemployment Claims
        • Previous: 239K
        • Forecast: 236K
      • Friday
        • Building Permits
          • Previous: 1.23M
          • Forecast: 1.25M

Monthly: Monthly showed that we touched triangle resistance, depending on how the monthly closes there is still no idea if it is a rejection or not.

USDJPY Monthly.PNG

Weekly: We closed bearish (engulfing), which could be a confirmation that we have rejected the resistance, and will have a high chance to test 111.800 as the next strong zone. We will have to wait and see on the LTF if we break the current support or not.

USDJPY Weekly.PNG

Daily: Daily shows a break of a bullish trendline but it is still in the range and has not broken support or resistance. If the support does break, the highlighted area is where I see price going. The second, photo shows a long-term possibility of a H&S forming if we break the support.

USDJPY Daily.PNG

H4: We broke support and in a small bearish trend whilst in a range. A descending triangle has formed and there is a confluence of a retest of a broken support and 3rd touch on the trendline. If we do find rejection, there is a strong chance of us dropping to the highlighted area on the daily.

USDJPY H4


Overall USDJPY Analysis

We still wait and watch the King and Queen to see where price wants to go. Price is ranging, there is no trend, wait for a breakout then we will know where price wants to go long term. But keep in mind next month is Fed Rate Hikes, and they did promise a hike this year, and December is their last chance for fulfill their promises.


Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction.PNG

Both paths are possible, and we always must think of both directions price can go, so when it does happen we come prepared. We will have a breakout soon, we just have to be patient.

P.S. King = Market Structure + Queen = Price Action.