Previous Week Update:
None of the paths was followed, however, as I mentioned we did range during NFP week and the range 1270 – 1280 was respected. Now we just need a breakout in either price level to know where price wants to continue to go.
Upcoming USD News:
- Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
- Crude Oil Inventories
- Previous: -2.4M
- Unemployment Claims
- Previous: 229K
- Forecast: 231k
- Unemployment Claims
Monthly: Monthly closed bearish but keep in mind that we still closed about the 1270, so don’t be surprised if we go bullish. Just good to keep in mind what HTF looks like. But LTF will dictate where price wants to go for now.
Weekly: Weekly closed bearish, but above 1270 (monthly support), and momentum seems to have been exhausted. However, this does not signal that price is going to go bullish. Only wait it does, is if we get a bullish weekly close, for now we watch and see what daily and H4 tell us.
Daily: We have been respecting the broken support of 1270, and we have created a ranging box. So, whichever way we breakout, price should go to the next zone and come for a retest.
H4: I am seeing possible retest at the area I highlighted as we are at support and we had a strong drop. Overall, I still see it bearish based on Unemployment rates and how no bullish structure has been formed.
Overall Gold Analysis
Technicals still show no sign of a reversal to me, I still see more downside. However, it is possible to rise because maybe NFP did not hit target. But, Unemployment decreased again which is a very good sign.
Next month will the Fed Rates so keep in mind what Yellen will say this week, she may give some clues on what will happen. They did announce they wanted to hike rates this year, and December is the last chance. So, possibilities of a hike are very high, but we won’t know until it happens. For now, we will watch the King and Queen to see where price wants to go.
These are the possible paths I think it will follow. On daily we have a ranging box trade. So, you can wait till Tuesday to see how it closes before taking a trade. Overall all bearish paths I see have a high probability. However, be open minded on how price can go bullish.
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I have e-mailed the applicants that have been accepted. There will definitely be more mentorship in the future, but need to help the current group get their foundations set.