Previous Week Update:
EURUSD was simple ranging this week and created a beautiful bearish flag that it broke to the downside. It broke the higher low formed with momentum and I am seeing high possibilities for more downside.
Upcoming USD News:
- ECB President Draghi Speaks
- Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
- Crude Oil Inventories
- Previous: -2.4M
- Unemployment Claims
- Previous: 229K
- Forecast: 231k
- Previous: 4.2%
- Forecast: 4.2%
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- Previous: 59.8
- Forecast: 58.3
- Unemployment Claims
Monthly: Monthly closed with a strong bearish candle, which is looking extremely good for use to hit our monthly support (broken resistance 1st retest).
Weekly: Weekly closed as a doji, which usually means continuation in my eyes, and there is a confluence of the weekly testing the broken H&S neckline and now looking to go to 1st and then 2nd target.
Daily: As I said, price ranged and now we have a ranging box trade. Bearish probability is very high because of the confluence of retesting the H&S broken neckline/support. If we break down, we will hit 1st target then bounce to retest broken box I think and then continue to 2nd target.
H4: Here you can see the bearish flag that formed during NFP week and broke with the news on Friday. As you can see we took out previous minor Higher Low with momentum and looking to retest that broken support before continuing to our target on the HTFs.
Overall EURUSD Analysis
Technicals still show no sign of a reversal to me, I still see more downside. However, it is possible to rise because maybe NFP did not hit target. But, Unemployment decreased again which is a very good sign.
Next month will the Fed Rates so keep in mind what Yellen will say this week, she may give some clues on what will happen. They did announce they wanted to hike rates this year, and December is the last chance. So, possibilities of a hike are very high, but we won’t know until it happens. For now, we will watch the King and Queen to see where price wants to go.
A path looking most probable but always be open minded about how price can also go the other direction. Daily we have a ranging box, so you can wait till Tuesday, see where it breaks out of and take positions accordingly.
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I have e-mailed the applicants that have been accepted. There will definitely be more mentorship in the future, but need to help the current group get their foundations set.