Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update.PNG

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1.PNG

Followed path A beautifully and went passed my expected 2nd target of 108.800. Expecting a retracement but with the news over the weekend we could drop further down then hit another strong support then go for another lower high.


Upcoming USD News:

  • Wednesday
    • PPI m/m
      • Previous: -0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.3%
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: 4.6M
  • Thursday
    • CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.3%
    • Core CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      •  Forecast: 0.2%
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 298K
      • Forecast: 300K
  • Friday
    • Core Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: 0.5%
      • Forecast: 0.5%
    • Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: 0.5%
      • Forecast: 0.5%

Monthly: Monthly closes with a doji, but as expected and mentioned it was filled. I am looking for it to test the monthly bottom trendline and then see what happens. Overall it seems we created a lower high then we will look to test the lows if trendline is not respected, and possibly create a lower low.

USDJPY Monthly.PNG

Weekly: Weekly closed with a strong bearish candle after the news over the weekend with Trump and Kim Jung Un. This also broke out double top neckline cleanly. I am expecting an easy test of 107.00 ~ 106.200 before we come back to retest the broken neckline.

USDJPY Weekly.PNG

Daily: UJ has closed lower than the previous lower lows, and we are looking at 106.200 as a possible lower low before going back up to create a lower high. There was a strong break of support and there is momentum, where I am looking as an easy wick fill when the market opens. This might already fill with the Hurricane news over the weekend.

USDJPY Daily.PNG

H4: This is a closer look to what happened with the week’s market structure. I highlight 2 zone for possible retests, where there is double the confluence with the trendline. So keep an eye out for this 2 zones for a rest and exhaustion before looking to further short to the targets shown above.

USDJPY H4.PNG


Overall USDJPY Analysis

All I see is USD bears, with the uncertainty with nuclear war and the natural disaster that will cost the US billions of dollars. Technical’s also show the same thing, we are looking to create another lower high before we hit target of 107 and 106.200, but I am more than certain that we will hit those targets and look to test the monthly bottom trendline. If we break that we will continue lower to the monthly lows.

But again, we trade what we see. I can’t stress this enough. You need to really understand price action and market structure. If you don’t pick up a book, Naked Forex is a cheat code to this but practice makes it perfect.


Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

As stated earlier I am looking for the retest zones to short UJ further lower. This is not considering the news of the hurricane over the weekend, but regardless if price retraces I will be looking at these 2 areas for exhaustion to short but with a confirmation with an h4 candle. Patience is key with swinging.


In Addition:

  • Have a great week to you all and THANK YOU for all the support.
  • I will officially start my weekly webinar next weekend on analyzing USDJPY and Gold.
  • Link will be posted in the groups, on IG and on Telegram.
  • Link for Telegram is here: