USDJPY

Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update.PNG

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1.PNG

Followed path B but had a false breakout of the bullish channel to tap weekly support and bounced all the way up. Looking for either a bullish flag or double top formation for confirmations on the direction.


Upcoming USD News:

  • Wednesday
    • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
      • Previous: 53.9
      • Forecast: 55.5
  • Thursday
    • Unemployment Claims:
      • Previous: 236K
      • Forecast: 245K
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -5.4M

Monthly: Monthly closes with a doji, but more of a bullish doji because the wick to the bottom side is larger. However, we are still ranging and in the triangle formation, there is no clear overall sense of direction.

USDJPY Monthly.PNG

Weekly: Weekly closed with a strong bullish candle after we touched weekly demand zone. It is at a nice resistance and we should wait and see if we either break it or bounce off it. We could create a lower wick and go higher, this should be confirmed with a H4 bullish flag formation, but we don’t have that yet.

USDJPY Weekly.PNG

Daily: UJ broke out for the ranging box and retested it with NFP and continued higher, but is showing some strong resistance on breaking the price level it is currently at. If this doesn’t break above we will test previous highs, but if not we can consider it as another lower high and look to continue to the lows again. For UJ to be bullish, we must break previous highs.

USDJPY Daily.PNG

H4: Here you can have a closer look at our broke ranging area on the bottom side and a trendline break, which potentially could signal buys, especially after NFP retested the broken area and trendline. However, since data is very bearish and Kim Jung Un shooting his toy missiles, JPY is a safe haven, which would strengthen in times of uncertainty. So we could potentially create a double top to create a lower high and continue lower.

USDJPY H4.PNG


Overall USDJPY Analysis

Last Week’s Analysis:

  • This week is NFP, we are still the zone as I mentioned last week. We will have a breakout and this will start our trending market. So, wait for the breakout, enter on retest and be careful for NFP, then the week after we should start trending!!!

This Week:

  • We have not taken out previous highs to confirm our bullish trend, so at the movement we are still bears. Potentially looking for a double top confirmation to continue back down to the lows and potentially creating a lower low.
  • If we break above, keep an eye out of retest of previous resistance levels and price action for exhaustion to open buy trades.
  • With Kim Jung Un and Trump causing some drama over the weekend there will be a gap, so trade what you see guys, and stay safe with a nice SL.

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

Any of the paths is possible, I am still bearish on USDJPY especially after NFP and North Korea situation. But since we did break the trendline upwards and had some sort of retest I will also be eyeing buys. Trade what you see and don’t marry your analysis guys.