Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update.PNG

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1.PNG

UJ followed path C beautifully hitting the top range target and then since it did not take out the previous LH, we dropped back down to the support level, and back into the trendline.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Wednesday
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -8.9M
  • Thursday
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 232K
      • Forecast: 237K
  • Friday
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.4%

Monthly: Monthly closed with a strong bearish candle, we created a top wick and continued lower. We are reaching a critical support area as we have filled the first wick on the left. If we break the support we will continue lower, and look to touch the bottom trendline support.

USDJPY Monthly.PNG

Weekly: Weekly respected the double top neckline and formed an inverse hanging man candle as a weekly close. There is no sign on where UJ wants to go, so will have to wait for a weekly close to show if we are breaking or bouncing.

USDJPY Weekly.PNG

Daily: Daily tested the weekly double top neckline twice and is possibly forming a double bottom on the daily + h4, that may indicate we may bounce. However there needs to be a strong confirmation. Daily shows a possible wick fill.

USDJPY Daily.PNG

H4: Here we can see the clearer picture. There was a strong bullish candle after price tested 108.800~900, but it respected the trendline that it came back into and the previous broken support. On H4 it also created a H&S formation, where the right shoulder was confluence with the retest of the trendline break but it did not reach the neckline. With H&S I always wait for neckline break then entries on a retest.

USDJPY H4.PNG

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • USDJPY is at a critical zone, as there is not much news coming out, I believe this week will be either a strong rejection from the zone or we will find a ranging box (most likely). Then with NFP the following week we should break or bounce from the critical area that we are at. So, tread carefully, we will be ranging most likely, so when you take entries, exit on the next zone, or be sure to move SL to profits.
  • I will be closely looking for confirmations on a bounce with a double bottom exhaustion, if not I will be simply waiting until I see a set up I like with a good RR.

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

  • I am unsure with what will happen but these are possible scenarios happening, so just watch price action and decide for yourself.
  • A nice range is see is between:
    • 108.900 ~109.500 or 110.00

IN ADDITION:

Whoever knows how to add a booking system to WordPress please do let me know. I will be looking to take 1 on 1 sessions for 30 minutes to 1 hour to discuss any questions you guys might have about swinging or just general FX.

Have a great week to you all and THANK YOU for all the support