Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update 1

  • After:

USDJPY Update

Went as followed, did not know which direction it wanted to break out, but once it did, I just waited for a retest and my target of 109.200 was hit.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Monday – JPY
    • Prelim GDP q/q
      • Previous: 0.3%
  •  Tuesday
    • Retail Sales MoM
      • Previous: -0.2%
      • Forecast: 0.3%
  • Wednesday
    • Building Permits MoM
      • Previous: 1.254M
      • Forecast: 1.24M
  • Thursday
    • FOMC Minutes
    • Initial Jobless Claims
      • Previous: 244K
  • Friday
    • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
      • Previous: 93.4
      • Forecast: 94

Monthly: Monthly closed with a strong bearish candle, we created a top wick and continued lower. We are reaching a critical support area as we have filled the first wick on the left. If we break the support we will continue lower, and look to touch the bottom trendline support.

USDJPY Monthly

Weekly: Strong weekly close with a trendline break. We had a minor retracement after filling the first wick on the left. Once we touch the bottom highlighted area we should have a stronger retracement to get fuel, if we want to break that double top neckline.

USDJPY Weekly.PNG

Daily: From past week analysis, we broke support, retested on the H4 and continued lower. We have formed a strong daily rejection candle from a strong support zone. I will like to see a lower high (retest of highlighted zone) to confirm a break on the neckline. However, if candle will close above, and break the Lower High, we may look to continue higher. Wait for price action. We are at a critical zone.

USDJPY Daily

H4: As you see there is exhaustion at the support. We can look to retest the highlight areas, and if the trendline is touched again with a zone retest this will confirm for me a strong chance of breaking the support (neckline). If price breaks this trendline, we may be looking to continue higher.

USDJPY H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • USD has been in an overall bear trend, after breaking the ranging zone we hit my bottom target.
  • For shorts to be confirmed after reaching a strong support, we will need some fuel to break this support. I will want to see a lower high and retest of zones, my ideal situation is to see exhaustion at the trendline and zone (double confluence), then will take shorts with minor risk per trade.
  • If the trendline breaks, and price action makes sense (usually with momentum) I will start looking for longs.

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

What I discussed above is what I will be looking for and the path shown above is what I most likely see. I don’t see any path more likely than the other because we hit a very strong support. Once price action makes sense I will add positions, but for now I wait and see and let the market show me where it wants to go

 


IN ADDITION:

I will be doing weekly webinars to go over analysis in the coming weeks and talk about the basics of swinging and what you should do.

Whoever is interested in joining, please e-mail cabinyim@hotmail.com and tell me what time and day would be best for you guys. Then I will try make it work.

Plus, whoever knows how to add a booking system to WordPress please do let me know. I will be looking to take 1 on 1 sessions for 30 minutes to 1 hour to discuss any questions you guys might have about swinging or just general FX.

Have a great week to you all and THANK YOU for all the support.