Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

Gold Update.PNG

  • After:

Gold Update 1.PNG

Gold formed a minor H&S, but did not close below support and showed rejection. Since with Gold I was only waiting for a H&S confirm and did not get it I was on UJ as it was clearer. The great thing with trading Gold and UJ, is that they are correlated, so which ever looks better, just trade that pair.

Upcoming USD News

  • Tuesday
    • Retail Sales MoM
      • Previous: -0.2%
      • Forecast: 0.3%
  • Wednesday
    • Building Permits MoM
      • Previous: 1.254M
      • Forecast: 1.24M
  • Thursday
    • FOMC Minutes
    • Initial Jobless Claims
      • Previous: 244K
  • Friday
    • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
      • Previous: 93.4
      • Forecast: 94

Monthly: Monthly closed bullish and is starting to break out of the triangle, but we will need a monthly close to confirm this. For now, we look at lower timeframes.

Gold Monthly.PNG

Weekly: We had a strong bullish close out of the triangle and the previous bearish candle may be a retest of the broken trendline, however, we are reaching 1295, a critical resistance. So, we should see if we break or bounce.

Gold Weekly.PNG

Daily: Gold broke out of strong resistance the past week, and I would like to see a retest before continuing higher and breaking the strong 1295 resistance. There is also a possibility of a triple top, but we wait and see what market structure tells us.

Gold Daily.PNG

H4: We have respected this trendline, even though we have a break it was influenced by fundamentals and retraced above it and continued higher. We broke resistance, and now we found a minor resistance. I see us hitting 1295 as a third touch on the daily (triple top) then we must see if price breaks or forms a pattern that says we want to go be bears. After this strong push up we will need some fuel so retesting the broken resistance would be perfect for me to see longs.

Gold H4.PNG

Gold Overall Analysis

  • USD has been in an overall bear trend, after breaking the ranging zone we hit my bottom target.
  • For longs to be confirmed for me, I want a higher low on the H4 or Daily, as we need some nice fuel to break this strong resistance. If we don’t I see a similar situation that we had last time. The trendline on the H4 will be critical, we break that we will continue lower in my opinion but that will need to be confirmed with a last kiss of the support being broken and trendline being broken.
  • If the trendline breaks, and price action makes sense (usually with momentum) I will start looking for shorts.
  • Simple price action and market structure will give you guys clues.

Predicted movement:

Gold Prediction

Gave most of the details above on what I am seeing.

So just remember what Gold could do, and watch price action. Any one of these paths is possible, once it follows one of the paths, start looking for confirms with price action and take your trades with managed risk.


 

IN ADDITION:

I will be doing weekly webinars to go over analysis in the coming weeks and talk about the basics of swinging and what you should do.

Whoever is interested in joining, please e-mail cabinyim@hotmail.com and tell me what time and day would be best for you guys. Then I will try make it work.

Plus, whoever knows how to add a booking system to WordPress please do let me know. I will be looking to take 1 on 1 sessions for 30 minutes to 1 hour to discuss any questions you guys might have about swinging or just general FX.

Have a great week to you all and THANK YOU for all the support.