Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update.PNG

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1

  • Analysis followed path A however, but it did not break down lower to 109.200. Of course, NFP week is almost impossible to predict, but that is why we have price action, and price action rules the Forex game. NFP beat expectations and shot USD up. I will be waiting until Tuesday for further price action or until it breaks the ranging box (highlighted below), then find the overall direction UJ wants to go.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Wednesday
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -1.5M
  • Thursday
    • PPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.1%
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 240K
      • Forecast: 244K
  • Friday
    • CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.0%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Core CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.2%

Monthly: Monthly closed with a strong bearish candle, we can look to create a top wick and continue lower. However, we are still consolidating in a zone, once it breaks, we will know where it really wants to go.

USDJPY Monthly

Weekly: We have a doji weekly close after bullish NFP. Possible 3rd touch. I will be looking for possible longs on UJ, but it is a doji (neutral candle). If the coming week closes bullish, longs is all I will look for.

USDJPY Weekly.PNG

Daily: Daily candle are resistance at trendline, and an order block. A breakout will occur, so we just must see which direction and just go with where price wants to go. I am more bullish after NFP, so if daily closes strongly above the box highlighted, I will be looking to hit my targets highlighted.

USDJPY Daily

H4: Here is the box I was talking about on the daily. NFP spiked UJ up but still respected the resistance. I will simply be waiting for a break of this box and wait for a retest to enter my trades.

USDJPY H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • USD NFP was good but this does not necessarily the USD will recover from it’s overall weakness.
  • https://www.investing.com/analysis/dollar-snaps-back-post-nfps-deepening-fx-reversals-200205441 Great article by Kathy as always.
  • USDJPY shows that we have a box, larger timeframes are showing exhaustion and I am starting to see bulls but I am not convinced just yet. I will wait for price action to create market structure and wait for the box I highlighted on the H4 to tell me where it wants to go.
  • I will wait for a break of the box, then wait for a retest before I take it anywhere. That is the setup I will be waiting for, if I don’t see that, they I will not take any trade on USDJPY.

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

  • This is what I discussed in my overall analysis. This is all I will be waiting for.
  • Keep it simple, watch price action and let it tell you where it wants to go, then go with it.

 

IN ADDITION:

  • I will be doing weekly webinars to go over analysis for the coming week and talk about the basics of swinging and what you should do.
  • Whoever is interested in joining, please e-mail cabinyim@hotmail.com and tell me what time and day would be best for you guys. Then I will try make it work.
  • Have a great week to you all and THANK YOU for all the support.