Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1

Beautifully followed path B. Had a higher retracement to another zone, but still was lower than the previous lower high, and now we look for a lower low target. Target will be highlighted below.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Tuesday
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI
      • Previous: 57.8
      • Forecast: 56.4
  • Wednesday
    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
      • Previous: 158K
      • Forecast: 187K
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -7.2M
  • Thursday
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 244K
      • Forecast: 242K
    • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
      • Previous: 57.4
      • Forecast: 56.9
  • FRIDAY
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m
      • Previous: 0.2%
      • Forecast: 0.3%
    • Non-Farm Employment Change
      • Previous: 222K
      • Forecast: 183K
    • Unemployment Rate
      • Previous: 4.4%
      • Forecast: 4.3%

Monthly: With the momentum, we have, the 2 lines drawn on the monthly are very likely to be hit and fill the wicks. Monthly will close on Monday, so keep an eye out. We have been ranging for a while and a breakout for us to trend will come soon.

USDJPY Monthly

Weekly: Strong double top formation, and another strong bearish weekly close. Momentum is with us and I see wick fills. NFP is this week and if it is bad, we will go all the way down to the lower neckline target.

USDJPY Weekly

Daily: Daily double top. I highlighted area where there will be a strong support (look left). So, if there is a break, where I am highly confident we will, the 2 targets are shown at 109.200 and 108.200. We have a nice juicy pip target. We may bounce from 110.200 to create another lower high before dropping lower or we may range around that area and where it breaks out we take the trade.

USDJPY Daily

H4: We have had a larger than expected retracement but a lower high was created. This usually means we need a lower low, and the lower low target I highlighted below (around 110.350-200). Where we then should retest again the broken support and continue lower to where we created a double bottom earlier.

USDJPY H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • USD has been weakening, Fed rates were kept the same and GDP growth disappointed. This week is NFP and Unemployment rates will give a very good idea of the future of the USD.
  • https://www.investing.com/analysis/busy-week-ahead-as-usd-eyes-multi-year-lows-200204360 Great idea of what happened and what might happen.
  • Keep an eye out for market structure, we need a new lower low, and after we create a lower low, we either range and then drop or we go and create a lower high.
  • Price action and market structure are key to what we are going to see in the markets.

 

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

  • Highlighted areas are lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
  • I see further downside for the dollar, however, where we will be creating a lower low and breaking the support, I see a possible ranging area for UJ.
  • But overall I am seeing us going to the lower area as there is empty space for us to fill and on larger time frame, we will be looking to test the double top neckline.
  • Keep in mind its NFP week, and so any swings keep a SL in profit of breakeven to avoid any fake outs or sudden reversals. Keep risk as low as possible and reward high.
  • I see a beautiful week coming, I am bearish on USD as timeframes show momentum and momentum fills wicks like @wicksdontlie has taught us.