Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

USDJPY Update

  • After:

USDJPY Update 1

 

This week played out beautifully to follow Path A. There was a retest of broken support and dropped, and just kept doing the same thing over and over and over again. Now for the coming week I am looking for 111.700 to be retested before an another drop to 109.200 or 110.200.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Tuesday
    • CB Consumer Confidence
      • Previous: 116.2
      • Forecast: 118.9
  • Wednesday
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -4.7M
  • Thursday
    • FOMC Statement
    • Federal Funds Rates
      • Previous: 1.25%
      • Forecast: 1.25%
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
      • Previous: 0.3%
      • Forecast: 0.4%
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 233K
      • Forecast: 242K
  • Friday
    • Advance GDP q/q
      • Previous: 1.4%
      • Forecast: 2.5%

Monthly: Monthly filled the wick of the left and has retraced, it is still possible to go further up as on the lower timeframes, as all TFs so a move downwards. Wick fills are likely, and a breakout is likely to come soon, since we have been in consolidation for months.

USDJPY Monthly

Weekly: Strong double top formation, very strong bull close. Looking for the next only to fill the wicks on the bottom and test the neckline of the double top!

USDJPY Weekly

Daily: Daily double top. I highlighted areas on the left, where I and hoping to see the same thing happen with the coming week. We have had a strong push down and now should have a ranging market (forming a bearish flag) then break to the down side.

USDJPY Daily

H4: We have been breaking support and retesting it constantly. I am looking for the same thing to happen. We will have to wait and see how price reacts. 110.800 is going to be a strong support, so if we do go up and retest we will need news to break it down lower. But we can drop first and then go retest broken support before filling the empty space on the bottom side.

USDJPY H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • USD has been weakening dramatically with all the fundamental data and political issues. I doubt that will change this week, but keep in mind this week is very heavy with news, e.g. The Funds Rates will be announced so be aware and always protect positions.
  • Buy Support + Sell Resistance as Wicks Don’t Lie always says it, and always look for confluences.
  • The am heavily looking into selling at 111.700 because it is a resistance (1), on the H1 we will have a 3rd touch of the trendline (2), and on the H4 we have a possible 14ema retest (3).

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

  • Higher timeframes show very strong bullish momentum, and with momentum we will wicks, so that’s what I am looking for this week, is to fill the wicks on the monthly and weekly.
  • I am waiting for 111.700 retest and to swing it all the way down to 110.800 as first target, 110.200 as second target and 109.200 as third target.
  • Watch price action and confluences and take your trades accordingly.