Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

Gold Update

  • After:

Gold Update 1

We have followed path A literally to the pip, it is important to understand market structure and price action in particular. We buy support we sell resistance and momentum fills wicks. Looking for a pull back before additional buys to 1258.5. The area from 1258.5 – 1262 will be very interesting as we could possible create a lower high.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Tuesday
    • CB Consumer Confidence
      • Previous: 116.2
      • Forecast: 118.9
  • Wednesday
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -4.7M
  • Thursday
    • FOMC Statement
    • Federal Funds Rates
      • Previous: 1.25%
      • Forecast: 1.25%
    • Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
      • Previous: 0.3%
      • Forecast: 0.4%
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 233K
      • Forecast: 242K
  • Friday
    • Advance GDP q/q
      • Previous: 1.4%
      • Forecast: 2.5%

Monthly: Strong close on the monthly candle as a bear. We filled the hanging man candle and now we are retracing, it is still possible to test the lower trendline. This could be a possible retracement before continuing lower. But have to keep an eye out on the lower timeframes.

Gold Monthly

Weekly: Strong weekly bullish close, and ignored a retest of the broken trendline. We still have more room up to fill the wicks, however, 1261 area is a strong resistance based on historical technical levels and also a strong fib level confluence.

Gold Weekly

Daily: After creating a lower low at 1205 it is entirely possible that 1261 might be our lower high, however, with the momentum that we have and the fundamental data to work with, the target to the top side is more than likely.

Gold Daily

H4: We broke an ascending triangle and retested it and continued higher. Breaking resistance and retesting it and continuing higher. However, now we are at a resistance so I see us dropping back down to the broken resistance (now support) for a retest before continuing higher. But 1261 is first target and we will have to see what happens there.

Gold H4

Gold Overall Analysis

  • USD has been weakening dramatically with all the fundamental data and political issues. I doubt that will change this week, but keep in mind this week is very heavy with news, e.g. The Funds Rates will be announced so be aware and always protect positions.
  • Buy Support + Sell Resistance as Wicks Don’t Lie always says it, and always look for confluences.
  • I am seeing buying around 1245-47, will have to wait for price action to say where it wants to go. For me Gold this week isn’t as clear and there are not as many confluences, so I am sticking to USDJPY.

Predicted Movement:

Gold H4

  • Both are possible, if the trendline breaks we will continue lower and confirm that we have created a lower high and will go to create another lower low.
  • But with the technical and fundamental data we have, upside is reinforced, but this week is news heavy, so tread lightly, always protect your positions or minimize losses.
  • I am sticking to UJ this week but will be looking at gold for confluences.