Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

UJ Update 0

  • After:

UJ Update

  • Again, followed Path A beautifully. Now reaching the 2nd target, we should create a higher high before then UJ dropping to create a higher low.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Wednesday –
    • Yellen Testifies
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -6.3M
  • Thursday
    • PPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.0%
      • Forecast: 0.0%
    • Yellen Testifies (2nd speech)
  • Friday
    • CPI m/m
      • Previous: -0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.1%
    • Core CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Core Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: -0.3%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: -0.3%
      • Forecast: 0.2%

Monthly: Previous monthly closed strong bearish candle. With this strong momentum, we are likely to go fill the wicks on the left and since we broke out the monthly bullish flag we are likely to get to 116 and higher.

UJ Monthly

Weekly: Strong bullish close, looking to fill wicks on the left. Clear trendline break / triangle break, so on the weekly we will get to 116 as a target for our higher high.

UJ Weekly

Daily: We broke out of the trendline resistance that we have been respecting for 3 days prior. NFP helped give us a clean break, now we should see a retest of the support. Then we should fill wicks, hit 114.400 then create a higher high at 116.

UJ Daily

H4: Here we can see what happened after the NFP aftermath. We have been respecting the previous resistance for 3 days, which confluence with the trendline resistance. Now that we have broken up, we are looking to test previous highs after a retest of broken resistance. Then we watch to see if we create a double top or break the resistance.

UJ H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • NFP was good.
    • Previous: 152K
    • Forecast: 175k
    • Actual: 222k
  • However, Unemployment missed the target.
    • Previous: 4.3%
    • Forecast: 4.3%
    • Actual: 4.4%
  • I am seeing overall a very bullish USD based on market structure highlighted above but as history can repeat itself, USDJPY may form a double top and drop to test the neckline.
    • E.g. last time NFP was good but the USD weakened because the unemployment rate missed it target by 0.2% at least from what I remember
  • But price action is key, so watch and wait.

Predicted movement:UJ Prediction

  • I see path A and B as the most likely paths for UJ as momentum is on its side on the larger timeframe, but keep a close eye for the resistance levels as it could create a double top and follow Path C.
  • Price action is key, watch and wait to see how it plays out to the levels I highlighted.