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  • Thursday
    • Business NZ Manufacturing index
      • Previous: 58.5

Monthly: We have reached a strong resistance and will need to look on the lower timeframe to understand where price wants to go, as previous to this, the monthly candle ended very bullish. We are in an ascending triangle but I doubt it will break just yet before creating another higher low.

NZDUSD Monthly

Weekly: I drew a trendline which could signal a last kiss from the broken trendline, but it is difficult to confirm. However, we have a sort of bearish engulfing on the weekly, and a nice wick to fill on the bottom side. All I can say is that, if this week closes in another strong bear, we are continuing lower.

NZDUSD Weekly

Daily: There are strong rejection candles towards 0.73400 level, and when you look left it shows a very strong support. I have highlighted my targets and will be keeping this same chart to update (as you notice my levels are psychological levels that match technical levels).

NZDUSD Daily

H4: Majority of the explanation is on the charts and will be explained below. But here we can see that we are creating higher lows, even though its messy and shows strong respect towards the broken trendline. We have formed a triangle and I am think that the breakout will be lower with all the data we have on the technical and fundamental side of it all.

NZDUSD H4

NZDUSD Overall Analysis

  • NZD does not have much data but with the data to work with, GDT has been negative twice in a row. This week we don’t face much NZD news so I believe the main driver will be the USD, and since it has been bullish and NZDUSD is at a critical level I see bears as explained above.
  • In addition, even though we only have GDT to work with, The New Zealand Dairy industry represents a quarter of all the nation’s exports, so it plays a big part of the NZD economy.
  • Looking at how it broke 2 different trendlines and has been creating higher lows on the H4 and could possibly be a last kiss on the weekly all it shows is bears to me.
  • Right now, we are in a triangle, but if you look closely we are also in an ascending triangle, so the breakout I am seeing is downwards based on the technical rejections and top wicks, PLUS the strengthening of the USD.
  • NZD is a long-term pair, it’s a perfect example of 80% ranging, 20% trending but when it trends it trends.

Update of NZDUSD when it was 0.68500

  • When price was at 0.68500, the only time it breached under was when there were the NZD interest rates. However, if you look left 0.68500 is a very strong psychological level. Plus, NZDUSD if you plot the psychological levels, it respects them beautifully.
  • When we were at 0.68500, NZD was strengthening, GDT was consecutively positive, retail sales were strong and so was visitor arrivals. But at that time USD was strengthening as well, which explains why we were ranging.
  • When USD weakened, you can see that we shot all the way up almost in a straight up to the 0.73000 price levels.
  • What I am trying to explain about NZD, is that it trends only when the other currency matches its movements.
    • NZD strengthens = need USD to weaken for it to trend
    • NZD strong + USD strong = ranging
    • This is simple FX knowledge but with USDJPY, where USD goes USDJPY goes pretty much (my observation I may be wrong)
  • So, in order for you to be successful in NZD swinging you must find a pair that is doing the opposite to what NZD is doing, and it is very easy to understand what NZD wants to do, as not much fundamental news comes out too often.