Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

Gold Update 0

  • After:

Gold Update

Upcoming USD News:

  • Wednesday –
    • Yellen Testifies
    • Crude Oil Inventories
      • Previous: -6.3M
  • Thursday
    • PPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.0%
      • Forecast: 0.0%
    • Yellen Testifies (2nd speech)
  • Friday
    • CPI m/m
      • Previous: -0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.1%
    • Core CPI m/m
      • Previous: 0.1%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Core Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: -0.3%
      • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Retail Sales m/m
      • Previous: -0.3%
      • Forecast: 0.2%

Monthly: Strong close on the monthly candle as a bear. Wicked was filled and with momentum we are looking to test the triangle support to see if we break or bounce.

Gold Monthly

Weekly: Very strong weekly close, we filled the wick on the left and now looking to carry on to the other 2 levels highlighted, however I see that we will possibly test the trendline support.

Gold Weekly

Daily: As trendlines are not 100% accurate we can in a way see how price reacted and looked like retest the trendline and dropped. Now with that strong break of the support I highlighted the next 2 levels of possible take profit. And that Gold wick should be filled easily.

Gold Daily

H4: NFP created the large wick but respected the resistance and dropped. With momentum it broke down through support and now I think if price opens at the resistance (previous support) I will be taking sells with SL about half way of the previous range.

Gold h4

Overall USDJPY Analysis:

  • NFP was good.
    • Previous: 152K
    • Forecast: 175k
    • Actual: 222k
  • However, Unemployment missed the target.
    • Previous: 4.3%
    • Forecast: 4.3%
    • Actual: 4.4%
  • I am seeing overall a very bullish USD based on market structure highlighted above but as history can repeat itself, USDJPY may form a double top and drop to test the neckline.
    • E.g. last time NFP was good but the USD weakened because the unemployment rate missed it target by 0.2% at least from what I remember
  • Since we broke support I am looking for a retest before continuing lower, so hopefully market opens at resistance so I can short Gold.
  • I usually don’t trade Mondays but because last week I missed the whole weeks move on Monday I will be looking to take some minor positions on Gold this week. And will split positions between my first, second and third targets.

Predicted Movement:

Gold Prediction

  • I was trying to think about other possibilities but this is all I see. So keeping it simple and short.