Previous Week Update:

  • Before:

Gold Update.PNG

  • After:

Gold Update 1

  • Broke the trendline and followed path B after a retest of broke trendline. Now are strong support, and close to the daily bullish trendline.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Monday –
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI
      • Previous: 54.9
      • Forecast: 55.0
  • Thursday
    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
      • Previous: 181K
      • Forecast: 253K
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous: 253K
      • Forecast: 181K
    • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
      • Previous: 56.9
      • Forecast: 56.6
  • Friday
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m
      • Previous: 0.2%
      • Forecast: 0.3%
    • Non-Farm Employment Change
      • Previous: 138K
      • Forecast: 175K
    • Unemployment Rate
      • Previous: 4.3%
      • Forecast: 4.3%

Other News to Take Into Account (Thanks to Alaaddein):

  • Thursday
    • ECB Monetary Policy
      • Euro may have an effect on Gold prices, as it is the 3rd World’s economical power, so keep an eye out.

Monthly: Strong close on the monthly candle as a bear. Possible wick fill + strong rejection off the triangle, we can most likely see a drop lower to the previous low.

XAUUSD Monthly

Weekly: Strong weekly close with a nice possible wick fill to touch the trendline. A triangle formed on the weekly, so a breakout is likely to occur (mostly downside –> explained on lower timeframes). Wicksdontlie and I see that red line as a possible wick fill if we break that trendline.

XAUUSD Weekly

Daily: My targets have been marked, we are consolidation after the double top rejection at strong support. H4 will explain in further detail why I see a downside. + *Wicksdontlie –> Daily candle highs have been always lower than the previous candle and the bodies with wicks on the downside show momentum. Momentum + Wicks = always filled.

XAUUSD Daily

H4: Gold is in a nice consolidation range between the red line and green line. Plus, there is a descending triangle forming. We are most likely to test the red line or trendline before our move lower.

XAUUSD H4

Gold Overall Analysis

  • Gold is in my sights and I am loving it, but because of NFP I will be cautious.
  • Higher timeframes are showing a bearish move and it looks to be in momentum.
  • In addition, we are approaching the daily trendline which in the past have been strong respected. However, on the H4 we are forming a descending triangle, which adds nice confluence that the daily trendline may be broken to continue our way to the lower Red line. (Descending triangle = usually breakout downwards).
  • Keep as eye out for those levels, I am looking to swing Gold all the way down to my first and second target that I plotted on the Daily chart.

Predicted Movement:

XAUUSD Prediction

  • I don’t see a break out upwards unless NFP decides it will go up. So keep an eye out for those levels for shorts, but again, look at price action and decide for yourselves what makes sense.
  • Hope everyone pips this week!