Previous Week Update:

  • Before:USDJPY Before
  • After:

USDJPY After

Upcoming USD News:

  • Tuesday –
    • PPI m/m
      • Previous – 0.5%
      • Forecast – 0.1%
    • Wednesday
      • CPI m/m
        • Previous – 0.2%
        • Forecast – 0.3%
      • Core CPI m/m
        • Previous – 0.1%
        • Forecast – 0.2%
      • Core Retail Sales m/m
        • Previous – 0.3%
        • Forecast – 0.2%
      • Retail Sales m/m
        • Previous – 0.4%
        • Forecast – 0.1%
      • FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
        • Previous – 1.00%
        • Forecast – 1.25%
      • Thursday –
        • Unemployment Claims
          • Previous – 241K
          • Forecast – 245K
        • Friday –
          • Building Permits
            • Previous – 1.23M
            • Forecast – 1.25M

Monthly: The month ended with a bearish pin bar formation, and the new candle created a top wick is currently bearish. Looking to fill the wick on the left. But current candle a doji.

USDJPY Monthly

Weekly: Weekly closed as a doji, does not signal a reversal. However, with the next coming week close. If it closes bullish and break triangle upwards 118 is the higher high target, but if it stays bearish, 106 is still the target.

USDJPY Weekly

Daily: Price retrace after testing the 109.200, where gap was filled when price jumped (look left on MT4, you will see the gap). We are still respecting the downward trend and daily looks to have last kissed the broken triangle support. Will have to wait till Tuesday for market structure. Still has room up, but 110.700 strong resistance and strong confluence.

USDJPY Daily

H4: Price has reached a broken support and now acting as strong resistance. Forming an ascending triangle, but as we are in a bearish overall trend, it could be seen as a bearish flag. Break out is likely to happen. I see more downside after analyzing the daily, but interest rate week could create some whiplash. Wait for breakout and trade the PA.

USDJPY H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • NFP was continuously bad, and interest rates are looking to be hiked this coming week. I am reducing my trading volume this week because I am uncertain where price will go. Technicals show that it can go either ways, so please wait and observe!
  • Look at my analysis and just wait for the bigger picture, both ways, swings will be beautiful!

Predicted movement:

USDJPY Prediction

  • I see path A and B happening based on technical levels, however, breaking the ascending triangle upwards is very possible, making path C in my sights. I am just waiting for the ascending triangle breakout then waiting for market structure on h4 and h1.
  • Interest rates on Forex Factory are showed to be hiked, which may cause C to be even more likely.
  • Honestly, with NFP being continuously bad, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I will be looking to mostly enter my swings after that and will look to simply scalp easy set ups.
  • Please be patient, markets are here, just wait for PA.