Previous Week Update:

USDJPY Update

  • From last weeks predicted movement it didn’t go as planned but went like path A. It broke the bearish flag, and had a double top to confirm it. Right now, we are looking for a possible retest of the double top broken neckline before continuing lower.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence
    • Previous – 120.3
    • Forecast – 120.1
  • Wednesday – Pending Home Sales m/m Â
    • Previous – 0.8%
    • Forecast – 0.7%
  • Thursday –
    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
      • Previous – 177K
      • Forecast – 181K
    • Unemployment Claims
      • Previous – 234K
      • Forecast – 239K
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI
      • Previous – 54.8
      • Forecast – 54.7
    • FRIDAY
      • Average Hourly Earnings m/m
        • Previous – 0.3%
        • Forecast – 0.2%
      • Non-farm Employment Change
        • Previous – 211K
        • Forecast – 196K
      • Unemployment Rate
        • Previous – 4.4%
        • Forecast – 4.4%
      • Trade Balance
        • Previous – -43.7B
        • Forecast – -45.5B

Monthly: Bullish Pin Bar close –>  Similar position it was to last week.

USDJPY Monthly

Weekly: Ended with a doji close. Still respecting the overall downtrend. Doji usually is neutral, but from my observation indicates continuation.

USDJPY Weekly

Daily: There is clear respect on the weekly channel resistance and also respecting the smaller bullish trendline, and now forming a nice triangle. Waiting for a triangle break either ways to catch it. (I’m bearish).

USDJPY Daily

H4: We broke the bearish flag with a double top confirmation rejection off the weekly channel resistance. Since we have broken the double top neckline, we are looking for a possible retest of the neckline around 111.500-450, before continuation lower.

USDJPY H4

Overall USDJPY Analysis

  • As stated we have broken the h4 bearish flag downwards after testing the weekly channel resistance and forming a double top. Now I am hoping for a test on the broken double top neckline before the continuation lower.
  • In addition, looking at the daily, there is a triangle formation that I am keeping an eye for, as it is NFP week anything is possible, so be cautious. The triangle may break upwards as well, however, in my opinion it is highly unlikely looking at the technical of the other timeframes.

Predicted movement:USDJPY Prediction

  • The likely path I see occurring is A
  • However, NFP week usually causes some chaos in the market so anything is possible. I will be waiting for that neckline reaction to see how it will go.
  • In addition, just keep an eye out for the daily triangle. I would recommend being in and out of positions quickly. I have some nice positions of UJ as a swing so I will be looking to close majority on Wednesday before the major news.