Previous Week Analysis Update:
- USDJPY H4 looking to be taking path C.
Upcoming USD News:
- Tuesday: Building Permits (No major effect in the FX markets)
- Previous 1.27M
- Forecast 1.27M
- Wednesday: Crude Oil Inventories (Still unsure about the effect on the FX markets)
- Previous -5.2M
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims (If lower will be positive for the USD)
- Previous 236K
- Forecast 240K
Monthly: Bullish Pin Bar close –> Bullish continuation (wick fill looking very possible)
Weekly: Bullish candle with nice wick as a range
Daily: Rejection off the 114.300 resistance level, looking for a possibility retest at 112.800.
H4: Double Top rejection off 114.300, broke the upward trendline. Looking to continue lower to 112.800-200 for possible last kiss.
Overall USDJPY Analysis
- The week that just passed, we broke through weekly channel resistance and strong historical and psychological level or 113.
- Since the break we have no seen a retest, so the double top rejection off 114.300 may just be a minor reason for USD to weaken to grab liquidity before continuing higher.
- We can either last kiss the broken 112.800 zone or drop lower to 112.200 zone which will coincide with a last kiss of the weekly channel resistance.
- Even though CPI was weaker than expected, the overall sentiment of Fed hikes in June is 90%.
- Which if history repeats itself, which sometimes it does, USD will continue to strengthen further till the hikes. In my opinion, what could happen is that USD will be priced in for the Fed Hikes, and then once the rates are announced USD will drop, as investors take profit from USD being priced in and before the summer holidays. (Just one man’s opinion).
- Both path A and B I am looking for. Just needs price action confirms showing that there will be a last kiss on either 112.800 or 112.200 price zones.