Previous Week Analysis Update:

Gold Update

  • Analysis didn’t play out, but I still see 1200 as a target.
  • More detailed pathway will be posted.

Upcoming USD News:

  • Tuesday: Building Permits (No major effect in the FX markets)
    • Previous 1.27M
    • Forecast 1.27M
  • Wednesday: Crude Oil Inventories (Still unsure about the effect on the FX markets)
    • Previous -5.2M
  • Thursday: Unemployment Claims (If lower will be positive for the USD)
    • Previous 236K
    • Forecast 240K

Monthly: Current bearish candle after rejected from triangle resistance. Possible wick range to fill.

Gold Monthly

Weekly: Doji weekly close. Could go either ways. (Usually after a doji, there is continuation when not at resistance or support)

Gold Weekly

Daily: Daily rejection off bullish trendline. Nice wicks to fill on the left side towards 1235 zone.Gold Daily

H4: Double Bottom rejection of the bullish trendline, looking towards 1235 – 1225 price zone for possible liquidity grab before breaking that trendline to continue lower to 1200.

Gold H4 2

Gold Overall Analysis

  • Gold was rejected of the bullish trendline and created a double bottom. When looking at USDJPY it is almost as if it was a flip image.
  • I will be waiting to ride the consolidation zone between 1235-1225, unless price breaks above those areas, where I will hope to find a last kiss before continuing either way.
  • With Fed Hikes sentiment in June to be 90% for the hike, I would not be surprised to see if we broke the bullish trendline and continued lower to 1200 zone, which is a strong historical demand zone.
    • This would coincide with price being priced in and once rates hikes are announced, USD should weaken and gold to sky rocket again as it did before (2nd bullish trendline touch)
  • However, with Gold, as it is in a monthly triangle, there is possible further downside to test the triangle support.
  • Keep an eye out for price action, as anything is possible.

Predicted Movement:

Gold Predicted Movement

  • Gold is back into the consolidation zone between 1235 – 1225, so either path A or B is possible.
  • Will be waiting for a break of the zone or wait for price action to ride the waves in the zone.